Survey facts & stats

Question 1

Around what year is the earliest known opinion poll thought to have occurred, ahead of a U.S. presidential election?

Accepted Answer

1824. Newspapers reported informal voter-preference tallies showing Andrew Jackson leading John Quincy Adams.

Question 2

In what year did modern scientific opinion polling begin, pioneered by George Gallup and others?

Accepted Answer

1936. Gallup, Archibald Crossley, and Elmo Roper all conducted scientifically-based polls that year, a landmark for the industry.

Question 3

In the famous 1948 U.S. election polling failure, which candidate did polls wrongly predict would win?

Accepted Answer

Thomas Dewey (Truman won). This is the origin of the famous 'Dewey Defeats Truman' newspaper headline, printed before all votes were counted.

Question 4

In the 2015 UK general election, what did nearly every poll wrongly predict?

Accepted Answer

a hung parliament (Conservatives won a clear majority). It was one of the biggest UK polling misses in decades, prompting a major review of polling methods.

Survey facts & stats

Going deeper

In what year did modern scientific opinion polling begin, pioneered by George Gallup and others?

In the famous 1948 U.S. election polling failure, which candidate did polls wrongly predict would win?

Expert level

Around what year is the earliest known opinion poll thought to have occurred, ahead of a U.S. presidential election?

In the 2015 UK general election, what did nearly every poll wrongly predict?